Guest post by Chris Hazelton

There is major change afoot, with shifting market shares for smartphone vendors in the enterprise. While the shakeup in this market has been driven in large part by consumerization, with employees bringing their own devices to work, there has also been a significant shift in the purchasing mindset of IT. Not only about the devices that they will buy, but the devices that they will build applications for.

IT is now investing in Apple- and Google-powered devices in large numbers. While there is significant interest in iOS and Android, there is room for multiple mobile platforms in the enterprise. The use of mobile device management (MDM) software and mobile app development platforms means IT shops aren't wed to one OS. That said, the tools enabling mobile device independence will not support every platform equally. So who will remain relevant in the game, and who can remain relevant in a market increasingly dominated by Apple and Google?

The market today

Corporate demand for smartphones historically has been dominated by Research In Motion's BlackBerry smartphones, but this is changing rapidly in the face of growing demand for competing mobile operating systems. As we see in the table below, RIM is still used by 59 percent of U.S. companies, according to ChangeWave Research, a division of 451 Research, as of August 2011. From May to August of 2011, the number of companies using BlackBerry smartphones fell, while both iOS and Android saw significant increases. Also during this period, Microsoft's Windows Phone 7 and HP's webOS both experienced falling demand in the enterprise. This was driven by the lack of a clear migration path from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone 7, as well as serious doubt about the future of HP's role in the mobile computing market.

Organizations looking to secure mobile messaging turned to RIM, which was once alone in its ability to provide a highly scalable and enterprise-grade solution. While RIM's OS has evolved steadily to support advanced mobile applications and services, developers shifted their focus to iPhone and later Android devices. This wave of interest in building applications and services for iOS and Android devices in the enterprise has started a growing polarization around these two platforms. As developers and users increasingly focus on Android and iOS, what does that mean for competing platforms?

Where the enterprise smartphone market is going

It's clear that the enterprise smartphone market is starting to polarize around iOS and Android. According to ChangeWave Research, more companies plan on issuing corporate-liable iPhones than BlackBerry devices in August of 2011 (see table below). While BlackBerry devices are still sold in large numbers overall to enterprises, this represents a significant shift in mindset around iPhone in the enterprise. More companies are buying iOS devices, which means more companies are developing mobile applications for employees to use on these devices. Since the door has been opened by Apple, many enterprises are also beyond the evaluation stage for other device platforms. With Android, almost a third of companies (31 percent according to ChangeWave) report that they are currently using Google-powered devices. With strong interest in both iOS and Android, in the next two quarters we are likely to see more U.S. companies buying Android devices than BlackBerry devices. This means RIM will move to third place in the enterprise, behind Apple and Google, when it comes to the number of U.S. companies buying smartphones.

The battle for third

There are three potential contenders for third place going into 2012: BlackBerry, HP's webOS and Microsoft's Windows Phone OS. While RIM has a strong enterprise history, it is caught in a major overhaul of its smartphone OS. The launch of BBX next year will require developers to retool and reinvest in their applications, since BBX will not support apps developed for BlackBerry 7 and earlier versions. RIM will be dependent on BlackBerry 7 until it ships BBX-powered smartphones in 2012. During this time, both enterprises and developers will likely continue to reduce their focus on BlackBerry.

HP's webOS came to market with high praise, but has suffered (even at the hands of HP) due to a small portfolio of devices, and HP launched the TouchPad mobile tablet before it was ready. With a new CEO, the options for HP are to keep webOS for itself, sell or license it out, sell it as a patent portfolio, or offer webOS as open source software to increase device and developer support. With the future of webOS in doubt, there are very few enterprises that will bet their mobile deployments on webOS, particularly as there are no current plans for future devices powered by webOS.

Microsoft's Windows Phone OS has seen widespread support among device vendors, but has failed to gain significant traction within the enterprise. As of August 2011, only 4 percent of companies reported to ChangeWave that they were currently using it. This is down 50 percent from just one quarter earlier. While Microsoft has major hooks in the enterprise--more than any other vendor--particularly with Exchange, this has not translated (nor is it likely to) into significant enterprise adoption of Windows Phone. Many critical enterprise mobility partners, like Motorola Solutions and Lenovo, have moved away from Microsoft due to the lack of a clear migration path from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone. The support of Nokia will have limited impact on the U.S. enterprise market. If Samsung and HTC are unable to drive significant adoption of Windows Phone into this market, how can we expect Nokia to do so?

RIM vs. Microsoft

While Microsoft has come to market first with its new mobile OS, we see RIM retaining third place in the enterprise, with Windows Phone OS remaining in fourth. Microsoft's mobile OS may face a waning BlackBerry 7, but it will not see sufficient demand for it to catch RIM before the launch of BBX smartphones. WebOS could be revived as a consumer play, but its future in the enterprise has come to an end. BBX will take some time to come to market on smartphone hardware, but RIM's entrenchment in many enterprises will mean a ready install base that will be interested in these new devices. The release of Mobile Fusion, RIM's mobile device management (MDM) offering that supports Android and iOS devices, could slow the replacement of BlackBerry Enterprise Server (BES) by third-party MDM vendors. Enterprises that retain BES to manage BlackBerry 7 devices, as well as Android and iOS devices, will be ready to receive BBX-powered devices when they come to market in 2012.

Chris Hazelton is the research director for 451 Research's Mobile and Wireless practice. His research focuses on MDM and application development platforms as well as mobile tablet enablement technologies for the enterprise. He is primarily interested in the shift in computing from desktop to mobile operating systems.