I have to chuckle at a new mantra emerging: The success, or even life, of companies competing in the mobile device space hinges on an operating system that can outdo the iPhone and Android.

I'm beginning to read an article about it nearly every day. Of course there has been plenty of talk about Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and the fact that if Windows Phone 7 is a success, the company will survive in the mobile market. As for Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM), which has seen its total market share thanks to Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Android, some writers put the company on its death bed if its new BlackBerry 6.0 isn't a hit.

Meanwhile, Nokia, which is also losing out on the smartphone side, has introduced the MeeGo OS capable of running on devices such as smartphones, tablets, PCs, netbooks and so on. Analysts say its success depends on the handset giant's ability to compete with the functionality and features offered by the iPhone and Android-based phones. It looks like Symbian might be moving by the wayside.

I can't argue with the fact that new OS platforms must compete and improve on what is already highly attractive to consumers. But it brings back the question of whether so many OS platforms can exist, especially in an enterprise environment where enterprises hope to whittle down their support to at least two OS platforms to avoid complexity.

Operators too have voiced their need to settle on at least one or two platforms. Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) has primarily jumped on the Android and BlackBerry wagon, while T-Mobile is quite aggressive on the Android side. Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) has made its super phone debut on the WiMAX side with the Android-based Evo--which is now sold out.

AT&T (NYSE: T) Mobility has been quite vocal about the topic, over the years. In 2008 the operator voiced its desire to consolidate to one platform for AT&T-branded phones. Last October, AT&T CTO John Donovan said AT&T was coping with the fragmentation of device OS platforms by reducing OS variations in its portfolio. AT&T, the exclusive operator partner for Apple's iPhone in the United States, recently indicated that it would be the premier carrier for the new Windows Phone 7 platform, and the company has not embraced Android significantly, recently offering a stripped down version of the OS.

Of course the desire to coalesce around a small number of platforms may not be possible. Operators don't want to miss out on the latest innovative devices capable of driving significant sales, and developers for now seem to be flocking to multiple OSes. In the enterprise market, it's well documented that workers are bringing in their myriad of personal devices and demanding access to corporate email and applications. Hence, the nascent mobile OS market may continue to be fragmented for some time.

Will the mobile OS market finally go the way of the PC OS industry now dominated by Microsoft and Apple? Down the line, developers will have to make critical decisions about where to spend the majority of their resources. Then again, the mobile market is a different market from the PC market; mobile devices might serve different niches. For instance, Microsoft is revamping Windows Mobile 6.5 for the enterprise market with Motorola using that platform to offer a ruggedized smartphone. But certain niches may not be enough to attract developers.

Given the differences between the PC OS market and the mobile OS industry, I'm not so sure that we can look at the PC market to determine the future of the mobile OS market. What do you think? Please leave your thoughts in the comment section. - Lynnette

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