Why one wireless and not another?

Sometimes, the hype can almost deafen you. The sheer volume of email, phone calls, advertisements, and "special messages" that surround new product introductions (especially when the product in question involves billions of dollars worth of investment) can keep you from understanding anything about the true value of the product and its underlying technology. That's been the case with WiMAX for the last couple of years, and I fully expect the volume and tempo to pick up considerably in the coming months. Why? It's almost time for Sprint and other companies to start making money back on their significant investments in the technology infrastructure buildout.

The problem is that the rollout is unlikely to be smooth. I say that because I'm hearing whispers out of Sprint that indicate they haven't learned some very important lessons over the last 20 years. A Sprint official recently said that people looking for a cellular-like "unlimited data" option were going to be disappointed. He also indicated that the model for subsidizing hardware (you know, the "sign up for a year and we'll give you the phone" model) was going to change. What I hear from this is that they're going to make customers pay more up front, then meter the use. I have one thing to say about that: ISDN.

When DSL was starting to roll out a decade ago, equipment vendors told me their biggest fear was that the phone companies would treat it like residential ISDN, a promising technology use that was killed quickly and efficiently by a carrier who didn't have a clue about successful pricing models. The same pricing models that killed ISDN are now being considered for WiMAX. I can't be the only person who's worried about this.

WiMAX is promising for many applications, but it's far from the only wireless game in town. 3G and 4G cellular networks and free or low-cost WiFi hotspots will all compete with WiMAX in the mobile arena. If Sprint blows the pricing, they'll probably still find customers (ISDN is, after all, still available), but they'll ensure that the market is far smaller than it could be with single-price, predictable monthly pricing. Will Sprint and the other carriers figure this one out in time? We'll know the answer starting in the second quarter of this year. -Curtis

P.S. In observance of the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday next week, IT-Wireless will be published on Tuesday, instead of Monday. See you next week!